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Climat : le plus noir des scénarios

"Le Monde" daté du 14 mars 2009 titrait,"Le plus noir des scénarios climatiques se profile".

Le niveau des océans pourrait augmenter dans une fourchette de 75 cm à 190 cm d’ici à 2100, soit bien au-delà des prévisions du GIEC allant de 18 cm à 59 cm, prévisions qui ne prenaient pas en compte l’évolution des calottes glaciaires du Groenland et de l’Antarctique. Or la fonte des glaces et leur " écoulement " dans la mer sont beaucoup plus massif et beaucoup plus rapide que prévu.

Les conséquences sont dignes d’un film catastrophe : New York sera exposé aux risques de graves inondations, du fait des tempêtes, parce que de nombreux quartiers de la ville sont situés juste au-dessus du niveau de la mer.

Plus près de chez nous, d’après le Bureau des recherches géologiques et minières (BRGM), de nombreuses villes d’Aquitaine et du Languedoc-Roussillon seront menacées par l’élévation du niveau de la mer : Le Cap-Ferret, Lacanau, Hendaye, Saint-Jean-de-Luz seraient exposées à une hausse de 88 cm du niveau des eaux et à une augmentation de la fréquence des tempêtes.

Que dire de la Camargue, dont un bon tiers devrait se retrouver immergé, et le reste soumis à des inondations plus fréquentes.

Dès lors, quelle stratégie : évacuer ou protéger le territoire ? Et, questions encore plus complexes : qui décide ? qui paie ? A moins que ce ne soit "qui paie décide" !!


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